难治性肺炎支原体肺炎患儿闭塞性细支气管炎发生的影响因素及其预测价值

Risk factors for the occurrence of bronchiolitis obliterans in children with refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia and the predictive value of the factors

摘要:

目的 探究难治性肺炎支原体肺炎（refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia, RMPP）患儿闭塞性细支气管炎（bronchiolitis obliterans, BO）发生的影响因素及其预测价值。方法 回顾性分析2020年5月—2024年3月间收治的156例RMPP患儿的病历资料，根据BO诊断标准将RMPP患儿分成BO组（76例）和非BO组（80例）。采用logistic回归模型进行影响因素分析，采用ROC曲线评价模型对BO的预测价值。结果 与非BO组比较，BO组RMPP患儿热程长，白细胞计数高，白蛋白水平低（P<0.05）。BO组RMPP患儿大环内酯类抗生素治疗开始时间<5 d比例、糖皮质激素治疗开始时间<2周比例、支气管镜检查治疗开始时间<2周比例低于非BO组（P<0.05）。ROC曲线分析结果显示，由上述6个指标构建的logistic回归模型预测BO发生的曲线下面积为0.901（P<0.001，95%CI：0.849~0.953），当预测概率取最佳截断值0.341时，模型预测的灵敏度为0.893，特异度为0.827。结论 由热程、白细胞计数、白蛋白、大环内酯类抗生素治疗开始时间<5 d、糖皮质激素治疗开始时间<2周、支气管镜检查治疗开始时间<2周等因素构建的logistic回归模型预测RMPP患儿发生BO的灵敏度和特异度均较高。

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the risk factors for the occurrence of bronchiolitis obliterans (BO) in children with refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) and their predictive value of the factors.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the medical records of 156 children with RMPP who were admitted to the hospital from May 2020 to March 2024. According to the diagnostic criteria for BO, they were divided into a BO group (n=76) and a non-BO group (n=80). A logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for the occurrence of BO, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the value of the model established based on the risk factors in predicting BO.Results Compared with the non-BO group, the BO group had a significantly longer duration of fever, a significantly higher leukocyte count, and a significantly lower albumin level (P<0.05). Compared with the non-BO group, the BO group had a significantly lower proportion of children with initiation of macrolide antibiotic therapy within 5 days, initiation of glucocorticoid therapy within 2 weeks, or initiation of bronchoscopic therapy within <2 weeks (P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the logistic regression model established based on the above six indicators had an area under the curve of 0.901 (95%CI: 0.849-0.953, P<0.001) in predicting the occurrence of BO, with a sensitivity of 0.893 and a specificity of 0.827 at the optimal cut-off value of 0.341.Conclusions The logistic regression model established based on duration of fever, leukocyte count, albumin, initiation of macrolide antibiotic therapy within 5 days, initiation of glucocorticoid therapy within 2 weeks, and initiation of bronchoscopic therapy within 2 weeks has relatively high sensitivity and specificity in predicting the occurrence of BO in children with RMPP.